CipherM Threat Clock

How close is the moment your encryption breaks?

CipherM Threat Clock — current public state of quantum hardware progress and CRQC (Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer) proximity. Sources cited per-entry where possible. Estimates are conservative and shift as new data lands. Re-published periodically as new data lands.

as of 2026-07-26 · re-published periodically · cite as: cipherm.io/threat-clock

CRQC proximity by year

Subjective probability that a Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computer exists by year Y. Linear interpolation between knot points. Anchored on Global Risk Institute Quantum Threat Timeline Report 2023 (median expert estimate ~50% by 2034) and Mosca 2024 update.

2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2035
2038
2040
2045
0.02
0.08
0.18
0.30
0.45
0.55
0.70
0.80
0.92

Hardware milestones

superconducting transmon

IBM Quantum

Shipped

  • Eagle127 q · 2021
  • Osprey433 q · 2022
  • Condor1121 q · 2023
  • Heron r2156 q · 2024

Roadmap

  • Flamingo2025
  • Crossbill2026
  • Kookaburra2027
  • Blue Jay2028
  • Starling2029

src: ibm.com/quantum/roadmap (public roadmap dated 2024-11)

superconducting

Google Quantum AI

Shipped

  • Sycamore53 q · 2019
  • Willow105 q · 2024

src: blog.google/technology/research/google-willow-quantum-chip (2024-12)

trapped ion

Quantinuum (Honeywell + Cambridge Quantum)

Shipped

  • H120 q · 2020
  • H256 q · 2024
  • Helios · 2025

Roadmap

  • Apollo2027
  • Sol2029

src: quantinuum.com/news (2024-2025 announcements)

trapped ion

IonQ

Shipped

  • Aria25 AQ · 2023
  • Forte36 AQ · 2024
  • Tempo64 AQ · 2025

src: ionq.com/posts/ionq-roadmap

photonic

PsiQuantum

well-funded but less public validation than superconducting/ion-trap players

src: psiquantum.com (vendor materials)

topological (claimed)

Microsoft Azure Quantum

Shipped

  • Majorana 1 chip · 2025

src: microsoft.com/azure/quantum (2025-02 announcement)

neutral atom

Atom Computing

Shipped

  • 1180-atom array · 2023

rapid scaling potential; partnership with Microsoft announced 2024

Regulatory anchors

nist pqc standardizationFIPS 203 (ML-KEM), FIPS 204 (ML-DSA), FIPS 205 (SLH-DSA) finalized 2024-08. src: csrc.nist.gov
eo 14412 federal pqc deadlinesEO 14412 'Securing the Nation Against Advanced Cryptographic Attacks' (signed 2026-06-22): PQC for key establishment by 2030-12-31 and for digital signatures by 2031-12-31, scoped to high value assets + FIPS-199 high-impact federal systems; National Security Systems excluded. src: federalregister.gov 91 FR 38483
omb m 26 15 migration plansOMB M-26-15 'Execution of the Migration to Post-Quantum Cryptography' (2026-06-24, functionally supersedes M-23-02): agency PQC Migration Plans due ~2026-10-22 (120 days), five phases through 2035, crypto-agility explicitly required (Phases 3-4, Appendix A sec 5), TLS 1.3 by 2030-01-02, central CBOM endorsed. src: whitehouse.gov M-26-15 PDF
fips 140 2 sunset2026-09-21 — last day FIPS 140-2 certs are usable for new systems; all remaining 140-2 certs move to the CMVP Historical List on 2026-09-22. Historical modules may still serve legacy systems under an agency risk determination. src: csrc.nist.gov CMVP
far proposed contractor rule due2026-12-19 — FAR Council PROPOSED rule (EO 14412 Sec 6(c)) that would require covered contractors to comply with NIST FIPS incl. PQC algorithms by 2030-12-31; status: proposed-rulemaking (notice-and-comment still required — not an existing mandate). src: federalregister.gov 91 FR 38483
cbom minimum elements guidance due2027-03-19 — CISA-led (NIST coordinating) guidance on the minimum elements of a cryptographic bill of materials, per EO 14412 Sec 5(d) (270 days). src: federalregister.gov 91 FR 38483
cnsa2 nss acquisition gate2027-01-01 — new acquisitions must support CNSA 2.0; scope: national-security-systems-only (CNSSP-15), not government-wide. NSS phase-out of equipment that cannot support CNSA 2.0 by 2030-12-31; CNSA 2.0 mandated 2031-12-31. src: NSA CNSA 2.0 FAQ
pci dss 4 0 crypto agilityeffective 2025-04, requires inventory and migration plan
eidas 2 0 pqc alignmentEU regulation effective 2024, PQC alignment guidance issued 2025

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